Opinionated Intelligence
for CPG teams
Separate real growth from noise
How did our July 4th promo at Kroger perform?
Strong event on the shelf. Units were up 32% during the three-week promo, about 480K units above the prior three weeks.
Powered by Sundial’s Root Cause Analysis™
Test a discount before you run it
How would a 10% July 4 discount on the 32oz perform?
Based on your last three July 4 events: ~24% lift, ~9% incremental once you strip out pull-forward (shoppers stocking up who'd have bought anyway)
At 10%, this SKU clears well without much margin damage. The tipping point is around 15%: go deeper than that and you stop buying extra volume.
The proof behind it
The three most comparable July 4 events all landed in the same range, so 10% is a well-supported call for this occasion.
The three comparable July 4 events on this SKU
| Past July 4 promo | Discount | Unit lift | Truly incremental |
|---|---|---|---|
| Two years ago | 8% | 20% | ~9% |
| Last year | 12% | 27% | ~10% |
| Last year (club) | 20% | 35% | ~10% |
Spot patterns across retailers
Is the margin slip at Kroger happening at our other retailers too?
Yes, three of your seven major accounts show the same margin erosion, and it's not three separate account problems.
Kroger, Albertsons, and Meijer are all losing pocket margin on the same two SKUs, and they share one thing the other four don't: a distributor-level rebate that quietly escalated this year. The four accounts you supply directly are unaffected.
One source of truth,
every team aligned
Sales says we grew 4% last week, but Trade says we were down, who's right?
Both are, they're just looking at different points in the same flow.
Shipments to Walmart were up 4%; what shoppers actually bought was down 2% once the promo ended, so inventory is sitting in Walmart's DCs.
One connected base
Shipments
↑ +4%
Consumption
↓ −2%
Gap = product sitting in Walmart’s DCs · reconciled with share & margin on the same base
Each team drills into what it owns
Insights
Performance & issue spotting
Brand / Media
Spend impact on consumption
Cat Man
Assortment & shelf
RGM / Trade
Trade spend & pricing
Shopper Marketing
Program ROI
Sales
Account & retailer performance
Win the retailer
conversation
What should we bring to the Walmart line review to win a second facing?
Lead with the 12oz variety pack, not a price cut.
Adding it grows Walmart's functional-soda category +6% (pulling in new households, not just shifting your cans) and lifts their category margin — the case they approve. Skip the deeper 4-for-$5 promo: it lifts your units 18% but 70% is pull-forward and it shrinks category margin. Save the list increase for Q3, backed by the elasticity data.
| Add 12oz variety pack | 4-for-$5 promo | +8% list price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category volume (Walmart's #1) | increases+6% | increases+2% | decreases−3% |
| Retailer margin | increases | decreases | no change |
| Your brand volume | increases | increases+18% | decreases |
| Your net margin | increases | decreases | increases |
& so much more....
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